This week, Governor Gavin Newsom announced that all California state employees will be required to either be vaccinated or be tested twice weekly for COVID. The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) announced that it will extend this mandate to all health care employees in the state. While Governor Newsom, who is facing a recall election, may have been politically forced to allow people to opt out of vaccination by getting twice weekly testing, that is not the best strategy for putting this pandemic behind us. Here is an argument for why mandating full COVID vaccination makes sense.
First, some relevant facts. According to the CDPH website, in the past six months 99% of all new COVID cases in California have been in unvaccinated persons. The number of daily new cases in the state has jumped from about 1,000 per day at the start of July to now over 10,000, with hospitalizations on the rise as a result. Currently, 62% of the approximately 36 million Californians ages 12 and above are fully vaccinated, with an additional 9% being partially vaccinated and 29% being unvaccinated.
Against the previous variants, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were 95% effective in fully vaccinated people, meaning that 1 out of 20 who are vaccinated still will become symptomatic if exposed to COVID versus 1 out of 3 in unvaccinated persons. Partial vaccination only conferred about 60% effectiveness.
The new variant, delta, is roughly twice as contagious meaning that the doubling rate for cases is about twice as fast. An unvaccinated person who now has a greater than 50% chance of contracting COVID if exposed. It also appears to be more virulent, meaning causing worse illness. Previous variants cause hospitalization rates of about 12% while twice as many, or about 24%, of people who get delta require hospitalization. Currently, it is the dominant variant in California, the US and around the world, comprising about 83% of new cases in our state.
Fully vaccinated persons with Pfizer and Moderna appear to still be 88% protected from developing symptoms if they get infected with the delta variant, while the Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca vaccines may be less effective in preventing symptoms. However, while the rate of preventing symptoms is lower against the delta variant, all of the vaccines remain effective at preventing progression to more serious illness and death. Vaccinated persons who become symptomatic may be contagious, suggesting that the vaccines may become less useful over time in curbing the pandemic if new variants are allowed to develop. Currently, from a strategy of protecting oneself as well as the population at large, vaccination remains a very powerful strategy.
The explanation for the change between the previous variants and delta is natural selection. With every surge of new cases, there are tens of thousands of people reproducing hundreds of millions of new copies of the virus. At that rate, there will be a lot of errors in the replication of the viral genetics, called mutations. Most mutations are basically duds. However, when we are talking about large numbers of people getting infected during a surge, then there will be gradual changes in the virus that will lead to its ability to evade the vaccines. Unless nearly everyone is vaccinated, there will, over time, be a selection for those viruses that are resistant to the vaccine. When that happens, the effectiveness of the vaccines may drop to significantly to the point where we are back to having an unprotected population.
These vaccines are safe and effective. They are not experimental, do not cause infertility, do not implant you with a tracking device or any of the other myriad arguments against the vaccines that end up amounting to nothing more than unfounded opinions, rumors, and fears.
When it comes to people who are still undecided or flatly against vaccination, we have probably gone as far as we can with strategies of educating, cajoling, and offering financial incentives. It seems to this author that the only next step that will be effective in getting us to the level of vaccination that will put this pandemic firmly behind us may be to mandate that everyone gets vaccinated before a surge in unvaccinated people leads to some new strain that renders the vaccines ineffective. It is at least worth further discussion.
You can access previous Miller Reports by visiting www.WMillerMD.com.
The views shared in this weekly column are those of the author, Dr. William Miller, and do not necessarily represent those of the publisher or of Adventist Health.
Editor’s note: the original column has been updated as of July 27, 2021 to include additional details and clarification about the COVID-19 vaccine provided by Dr. Miller.
NBC News, citing unnamed officials aware of the decision, reported it comes after new data suggests vaccinated individuals could have higher levels of virus and infect others amid the surge of cases driven by the delta variant of the coronavirus,” the USA Today reported in a passage that was later scrubbed from an article.
People that injected the Wuhan flu shot should Stay Home, wear masks so as to NOT infect others.
Laughably illogical.
WARNING: Medical malpractice lawsuits coming Mendocino health practitioners.
Thank you for your comments, Alberta. I looked for the article that you reference, but could not find it. The data published in scientific journals is exactly opposite of what you are stating.
Vaccination against any virus works by giving our immune system a head start against the infection. People who are vaccinated still can get infected, but because of that head start the virus replication cannot get into full swing. With a substantially lower amount of virus being produced in ones body, the majority of vaccinated people won’t develop symptoms and won’t be contagious.
That is not to say that a few people who are vaccinated won’t still go on to get sick and be contagious. However, the rate is much lower for a vaccinated person that an unvaccinated one. For example, with the new delta variant, it appears that as high as 24% of people who get infected may require hospitalization. The risk of hospitalization in a vaccinated person, on the other hand, is less than 1% with the delta variant.
-William Miller, MD
Thank you for your comments, Alberta. I looked for the article that you reference, but could not find it. The data published in scientific journals is exactly opposite of what you are stating.
Vaccination against any virus works by giving our immune system a head start against the infection. People who are vaccinated still can get infected, but because of that head start the virus replication cannot get into full swing. With a substantially lower amount of virus being produced in ones body, the majority of vaccinated people won’t develop symptoms and won’t be contagious.
That is not to say that a few people who are vaccinated won’t still go on to get sick and be contagious. However, the rate is much lower for a vaccinated person that an unvaccinated one. For example, with the new delta variant, it appears that as high as 24% of people who get infected may require hospitalization. The risk of hospitalization in a vaccinated person, on the other hand, is less than 1% with the delta variant.
Should the Wuhan flu experimental, non FDA approved, emergency use only shot recipients be quarantined and indoor masked so as to not infect citizens?
Medical malpractice for withholding cheap effective cures such as Ivermectin and promoting an unvetted medical device.
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/usa-today-scrubs-new-evidence-suggesting-covid-vaccine-may-spread-virus
The crazy, convoluted, mixed up messaging from the CDC – it’s been this way from the beginning of the pandemic until now – has taken yet another turn. Now the CDC is recommending masks not just for the unvaccinated but for the vaccinated too.
Btw, CDC is NOT a government agency, it is merely an Advisory agency, that regularly flip flops on it’s own advise.
Show me the Science (ongoing, long term vetted peer to peer testing) not CDC pseudo hijinks.
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Thank you, Dr. Miller, for all that you do for the community and especially for keeping us so well informed about these complicated issues.