MENDOCINO CO., 8/6/26 — Host State Senator Mike McGuire hosted a statewide virtual town hall on Tuesday, Aug. 3, in which state officials and a panel of leading climate scientists urged residents to prepare for possible repercussions of a developing “Super El Niño.” McGuire kicked off the event, explaining that the goal was to “separate fact from fiction” surrounding forecasts.
McGuire said, “We want to separate hype from reality about this potential major weather event. We can’t control the weather, but we can control how prepared we are before it hits.”
More than 5,400 people participated in the virtual town hall, and they submitted questions from San Diego to Del Norte.
McGuire said California has already invested billions of dollars in emergency preparedness, flood infrastructure, watershed restoration and climate resilience. He highlighted a $10 billion statewide climate resilience bond approved by voters, describing it “as the largest climate investment by any state in U.S. history.”
The funding is intended to help communities prepare for floods, coastal erosion, sea-level rise, wildfires, extreme heat and other climate-related disasters, he said.
Is this California’s new reality?
Asked whether unusually warm ocean temperatures and extreme weather are becoming California’s “new reality,” the panelists agreed that the developing El Niño is interacting with long-term human-caused climate change, increasing the potential for severe weather impacts.
Dr. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the California Institute for Water Resources, explained that El Niño is a naturally occurring warming of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean that alters weather patterns around the globe. Swain’s work is focused on the dynamics and impacts of extreme events — including droughts, floods, storms, and wildfires — on a warming planet.
“El Niño is not, in itself, a storm or a series of storms,” Swain said. “It’s a temporary warming of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean that can profoundly affect the storm track over the Pacific.”
“We know the air is getting warmer in California and globally. We know the ocean is getting warmer off the coast of California and globally,” said Swain. He said El Niño is a natural climate cycle that now operates alongside a broader warming trend driven by human activity.
Swain explained that the developing El Niño is unfolding against a backdrop of long-term human-caused climate change, with the two effects being “additive.”
“Both El Niño and climate change … can potentially increase the likelihood of extreme precipitation events in California.” While conditions do not guarantee severe storms, he said they have “high potential to produce significant impacts in different parts of California.”
Mark Merrifield said El Niño provides a preview of the types of conditions California is likely to face more frequently as the climate warms. Merrifield directs the Scripps Institution of Oceanography ‘s Center for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation.
“It gives us a bit of a stress test of what the state is likely to experience with future climate change,” Merrifield said. Unlike El Niño, which is cyclical and eventually subsides, climate change “keeps getting higher and higher and higher,” he said.
“El Niño is a good opportunity to see where our vulnerabilities are throughout the state and what we can do to prepare,” Merrifield said. “It also is a sobering look at what we can expect with climate change.”
Swain added the developing event is already strong and could become one of the most powerful on record. “We may be seeing an event that we haven’t really seen before in living memory in California,” he said.
However, Swain cautioned that even a strong El Niño does not guarantee an exceptionally wet winter, noting that the powerful 2015-16 El Niño failed to produce the widespread precipitation many forecasters expected.
Instead, he said El Niño shifts the odds toward wetter conditions, particularly in Southern California, while increasing the likelihood of elevated sea levels, coastal flooding and stronger winter storms.
KTVU Fox2 Chief Meteorologist Mark Tamayo urged residents not to focus solely on the term “Super El Niño,” saying damaging storms can occur during any winter.
“We could have impactful storms every year,” Tamayo said. “The key is preparation.”
Tamayo noted that current federal outlooks show increased chances of above-average rainfall in Southern California, while Northern California remains in an “equal chances” category, meaning forecasts remain uncertain.
Still, he said the rapid strengthening of the Pacific Ocean has raised concern among forecasters.
“Now is the time to prepare, in the middle of summer, before these storms arrive,” Tamayo said.
HIgher sea levels create coastal flooding and erosion
Merrifield said one of the most certain consequences of the event will be higher sea levels all along California’s coast. The El Niño-driven sea-level rise will occur on top of long-term global sea-level rise, increasing the likelihood of record-high coastal water levels this winter.
“We’re expecting likely the highest sea levels ever recorded along the California coast associated with this event,” Merrifield said.
Merrifield warned that elevated sea levels combined with king tides, larger waves and heavy rainfall could increase coastal flooding, erosion, saltwater intrusion into groundwater and damage to coastal infrastructure.
Merrifield explained scientists also expect warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures, which could disrupt marine ecosystems by reducing nutrient-rich coastal upwelling and altering the marine food web.
Throughout the discussion, speakers emphasized that forecasting remains uncertain and that El Niño is only one factor influencing California’s winter weather. Their primary message was that communities should use the advance warning to strengthen emergency preparedness rather than assume worst-case scenarios are inevitable.
Preparing for floods is similar to preparing for wildfire
Nate Ortiz, assistant planning and preparedness director at the California Office of Emergency Services, outlined how the state and residents can prepare for the possibility of a strong Super El Niño, emphasizing that preparation is key.
He encouraged Californians to take steps before severe weather arrives, including:
- Sign up for local emergency alerts through county notification systems or Ready California.
- Assemble a “go bag” with essential documents, medications, insurance information, cash and other necessities.
- Build an emergency supply kit with food, water, first-aid supplies and medications.
- Include emergency supplies for pets, such as food, carriers, leashes and medications.
- Develop a family communication and evacuation plan.
- Keep vehicles fueled or charged and mobile devices fully charged.
- Follow instructions from local emergency officials during severe weather events.
At the state level, Cal OES is coordinating with the National Weather Service, California Highway Patrol, Caltrans, Cal Fire, the California National Guard, and local emergency managers to monitor forecasts, identify resource needs, and prepare for possible power outages, transportation disruptions, flooding and evacuations.
Ortiz emphasized that while the state is planning for worst-case scenarios, it is also preparing for localized disasters that can have devastating impacts on individual families and communities. He urged residents to prepare early and remain informed, noting that advance planning can significantly improve safety and recovery during emergencies.
McGuire highlighted the challenges facing more than 1 million Californians in rural areas who lack reliable cell service and may not receive early warnings or evacuation alerts during emergencies. He said he is advocating for AT&T to maintain landline phone service as a critical lifeline for communities where cellular coverage is limited or unavailable.
Residents are encouraged to sign up for Emergency Alerts and to talk to neighbors, families, and co-workers so everyone can be ready for any emergency.
Go to listoscalifornia.org for five steps to be disaster-ready and to sign up for emergency alerts.