California’s 40,000-acre question

MENDOCINO CO., 4/23/26 — Drive north through Hopland this spring, past Ukiah into Redwood Valley. You’ll notice gaps. Where Cabernet and Zinfandel twisted toward the sun last October, now there’s bare dirt, stacked rootstock, maybe even a For Sale sign. Growers across California are pulling vines at a pace nobody alive has seen. Nowhere is the identity question sharper than in Mendocino County, where wine has been a way of life for four generations.

This isn’t a story about oversupply. That’s the symptom. This is about what happens to a place when the crop that defined it starts to disappear.

By the numbers

How much vineyard has California lost? Somewhere around 38,000 acres ripped out in the last two years, depending on who’s counting. Wine industry groups say pulling another 40,000 would finally bring supply and demand back into balance. That’s a lot of bare dirt.

Counties on the North Coast: Napa 3,117 acres removed, Sonoma 2,711, Mendocino 832, Lake 777. Mendocino has far less total acreage than its neighbors, but those 832 acres hit harder. They’re concentrated around Ukiah and Hopland, where the county’s identity as wine country is most visible.

That figure may be a floor. Bernadette Byrne, who ran Mendocino Winegrowers Inc. for years and owned Sip! Mendocino in Hopland, says the growers she talks to think the real number is higher. “Everybody I talk to has got a different story about whether that’s true,” she said. “But in general, there seems to be consensus that it’s actually a lot more.”

The 2025 California crush came in at 2.6 million tons, the lightest since 1999. Rob McMillan’s Silicon Valley Bank report sees 2027–2028 as a bumpy bottom, recovery as slow. Byrne put it more bluntly: “I don’t see this as a typical agricultural boom or bust cycle. I see this as a transitionary cycle where the industry is changing.”

What happens to the land?

Near Ukiah, the Whaler Vineyard estate — 34 acres, roughly 28 planted — got pulled and sold in November 2025 for $1.685 million. The property listed at $3.495 million in March 2022 and closed at under $50,000 an acre.

Byrne said planted vines have flipped from asset to obstacle. “Some [owners] are finding that if they actually want to sell the land, they have to take out the vineyards — to make them more approachable or accessible for people, because people don’t want that overhead, that liability of having to farm grapes.”

Rich Parducci, a fourth-generation winemaker and owner of McNab Ridge Winery, sourced Whaler’s Cabernet for years. “Fantastic fruit,” he said. “Small berries that packed an intense flavor — black cherry, specifically — great tannin structure and color.” Russ Nyborg, Whaler’s owner, “did an amazing job” with the estate’s Zinfandel and Syrah too, Parducci said. “They were true stewards of the land.”

Parducci didn’t know the vineyard was coming out until right before it happened: “Sad to see it go unpicked. Surely not the ending the family had envisioned or hoped for.” McNab Ridge’s 2020 Family Reserve “Largo” Cabernet — 32½ percent Whaler fruit — is the last wine from that vineyard. Just under one pallet remains.

Byrne saw it from her window in Hopland. A neighboring Cabernet ranch didn’t sell any grapes last year. Part of it is cattle pasture now. Along the 101 corridor and Highway 175, she sees wholesale clearing on larger properties. But the smaller growers aren’t making dramatic moves. “The small old Mendocino growers, I don’t think they’re pulling out gracefully,” she said. “I think they’re just limping along.”

Parducci put a number on it. Nothing less than $1,000 a ton pencils out, he said, “and that’s if you’re farming at five tons to the acre or more.” Even Napa Cabernet goes for a fraction of what it fetched four years ago. “If you don’t have a home for it, you probably shouldn’t put it in the bottle.”

And even when growers are able to sell, the math moves against them. Lorenzo Pacini, a Mendocino grower and chair of the winegrowers’ grower committee, which helps members of the group market their grapes, said the squeeze comes from both directions: “Even if you can sell your grapes for the same price as or a higher price than last year, you might not turn a profit because of the price of inputs.”

Most of McNab Ridge’s growers keep farming anyway. “If you don’t farm it, you’re guaranteed not to sell it,” Parducci pointed out. “Fortunately many of our growers have other full-time jobs, which allows them to maintain their vineyards while still earning income.”

The abandonment problem

AB 732, effective Jan. 1, 2026, gives county agricultural commissioners leverage over pest-ridden nuisance blocks. That leverage is financial, and it can add up: $500 per acre initially, rising to $1,000 if owners don’t act within 45 days. Mealybugs, leafhoppers, sharpshooters, powdery mildew, trunk disease — left unchecked, they spread.

Parducci gets the intent but calls it “akin to pouring salt in a wound.” And he has a theory as to what happens then: “Some of these growers can’t afford to take care of their vineyard, let alone pull it out, so we’re going to penalize them? Then, when they can’t pay the fine, I assume the government takes their property?”

Byrne added a point that gets less attention: pulling vines isn’t free either. “It costs a considerable amount of money to pull out vineyards,” she said. “It’s not a simple take a dozer out there and just let ‘er rip.” There are disposal regulations, burn-pile restrictions, and real costs. The result is a three-sided box: growers who can’t afford to farm also can’t afford to pull, and now they can’t afford to do nothing.

What worries Parducci most isn’t the pulling. “My only hope is that it doesn’t get turned into houses or some type of commercial property. Once that happens, it is probably lost as ag land forever.” Vineyards could become what is often called the Final Crop — houses.

The heritage question

Not all removals are equal. When the Barbieri Ranch in Russian River Valley — planted in 1905 — got sold to a real estate firm and ripped out, Carlisle Winery’s Mike Officer put it bluntly: “One hundred years of farming gone in a day.”

Parducci sees both sides. “Old vines produce great fruit, but unfortunately they don’t always produce a lot,” he said. “The price per ton needs to offset the lack of production, and in a down market it might be tough to find a buyer willing to pay top dollar.”

Some newer plantings feature unique varieties creating interest among younger drinkers “who want to discover new things.” But Pacini warned against chasing trends: “Chenin Blanc is incredibly popular right now. But if you were to plant Chenin Blanc this year, in five years it might have fallen out of favor.” New vines take five years to produce. The market moves faster than the vines.

The generational weight

The Parducci name has been synonymous with Mendocino wine for four generations. Ask Parducci what his grandfather would make of today’s landscape, and he paused. “This would be a tough one for him to accept. He always felt bad when growers had to leave their crop on the vine.”

Then, quietly: “I miss him like crazy, but I am glad he’s not here to witness what is happening to the industry. I am not sure he would believe it.”

Even growers who can sell are getting ground down. “The cost to farm and the cost to actually produce a bottle of wine has continued to go up,” Byrne said. “Yet the marketplace hasn’t kept pace.” A local grower told her: “I used to love to farm, but now I’m in the office — dealing with water regulations, dealing with fees. It’s just not fun anymore.” That grower didn’t harvest all his grapes last year.

Looking ahead

At one time there were over 100 wineries in Mendocino County. Parducci thinks that number could drop to 70 or 75. “Hopefully the properties stay ag-focused, be it other crops — such as cannabis — or pasture land.”

He views Mendocino’s Largo area — the bench east of the Russian River — the way many view Rutherford or Oakville. “It just produces great Cabernet, the best in Mendocino County in my opinion.” That keeps him farming.

Pacini said the 2026 crop set looks small, which could speed the rebalancing. But the 40,000 acres Allied Winegrowers’ Jeff Bitter believes would bring balance haven’t all been pulled yet. Until they are, the gaps north of Hopland will keep growing. And the question Parducci keeps coming back to will only get louder: “When is this going to end?” 

Roger Coryell is a journalist with the Mendocino Voice and Bay City News, and founder of North and Vine, a wine-country marketing agency in Sonoma County. He was editor of the Sonoma County Gazette through its final edition in March 2026. He can be reached at roger@northandvine.net or (707) 892-3953.